Anyone who is familiar with how elections are run, or has covered elections, recognizes that populous cities or counties often drop big tranches of votes at various points in the evening. The last 8 weeks both parties have built unprecedented ground games, and $500 million has gone up on the airwaves bombarding Georgians with TV ads. I think we're going to keep, endlessly, be asking the question: What does the electorate look like? Tonight is unprecedented: double-barreled runoffs in one state to decide control of the Senate. And the music industry is big there, too. So Chatham County allegedly releasing votes tonight after it was reported that folks were going home. Hey gang! I feel like I'm ending in the exact same place where we started the Trump era -- covering Jon Ossoff. Agreed Charlie. Looking at some of those smaller, strongly GOP north Georgia counties, there are signs of Perdue/Loeffler overperformance. I'm not sure if it's so much a problem as it is his lesser-known status compared to Raphael Warnock Marc. At two events I was at last week, he said in any other state he would have won already (which is not quite correct, a few others have runoffs) and said 52.5% of the electorate rejected Ossoff in November. For a while, early voting was keeping pace with the November election, but that dropped off over the holidays. I do not know if that trend will continue, but a split decision is something that operatives in both parties were seeing as a possibility in the final days. He spent a lot of time in these runoffs outside Atlanta trying to improve his image/perception all around the state, Maya Stylistically, Ossoff seems more suited to metro Atlanta than Valdosta, Over a million votes in and reported, now ... so we're a quarter(ish) of the way there, During the November elections, Perdue escaped being defined. Good enough for the majority. Here's the latest from the Georgia Secretary of State's office. It’s hard to overstate the importance of the outcome of these races. Keep in mind that's home to Valdosta, where Trump held his Dec. 5 rally. I hope your mother canceled her TV subscription Teresa! ), so it strikes me as routine, So, if you're looking for a consistent pattern ... don't! Elena Speaking of which, in the privacy and sanctity of the voting booth, do you think Republican Sec of State Brad Raffensperger pulls the GOP lever for Perdue and Loeffler after they both threw him under the bus? Time for a check in. There's 159 counties in Georgia, Hey Zach: Do you think it's odd that they have no clue what Election Day turnout is, Many smaller, Republican-oriented counties are already accounted for. That's going to prove very helpful in breaking down the results county-by-county with all of you tonight. Republicans will hold their majority if they win just one of the two seats. My mother, who's a political junkie from way back, and has worked on various campaigns in Georgia, just told me that this election has been particularly nasty and divivise with more "ugly jabs." Dems poured it on. At this point, I can write the conspiracy theories that will populate social media tomorrow. ET Raphael Warnock (D) and Jon Ossoff (D) are projected to win Georgia’s U.S. Senate runoff elections, giving … Georgia is on track to be majority-minority by 2030. . “The November 3rd election was corrupt in contested states, and in particular it was not in accordance with the Constitution in that they made large scale changes to election rules and regulations as dictated by local judges and politicians, not by state legislators. It takes election officials time to process and tally mail ballots ... and at least a million of them have been returned for the runoffs. At the moment, with 48% of estimated votes reporting, both Warnock and Ossoff are at 74% in Muscogee County. I’m going to be watching the vote compared to November’s baselines in a handful of places — metro Atlanta, rural majority-Black counties, Trump country. Andrew And in between, we've all lived at least five lifetimes. Kelly Loeffler (R) 49.60%, In a battle of public speaking, it's hard to match the skills of the reverend from Ebenezer Baptist Church, Loeffler told a crowd in Atlanta just now that she still has a path to victory: “We’re going to win this election.”. Live U.S. Senate election results from Georgia | Jan. 5, 2021 It hasn't been easy for them but I have seen no (legitimate) systemic complaints about the administration of the runoff. Out of roughly 4.3 million votes cast. This can see-saw really quickly, and I wouldn't assume Democratic voters are going to stay this activated (or anywhere close) 22 months from now either. POLITICO - Live 2021 Georgia election results and maps by county. Split result? If Florida was decided by 11,000 votes, I'm fairly confident we wouldn't have known the winner on Nov. 3, The bulk of Mail ballots arrive BEFORE Election Day, MOST of Georgia's vote will be reported tonight, as it was on Nov. 3 -- but when an election comes down to 11,000 votes ... those trailing ballots matter even more, The problem they've ran in to this year is those ballots that arrive on Election Day -- election officials have struggled to handle those, since Georgia does not have a long history of dealing with a lot of mail ballots, It makes no sense that Election Day results are posted firstÂ. For those readers who are curious, POLITICO is the best media league softball team. ), Contra local media, Gabe Sterling says Chatham didn't stop:Â, There are only 111 fewer votes in the Perdue-Ossoff race than the Loeffler-Warnock race. — Fred Smith (@fredosmithjr) January 6, 2021. Speaking of people spreading conspiracy theories ... just got a fundraising text from the president with a conspiracy theory in it! Precincts reported refers to election day, in-person votes, I'll grab the second one: Counties all operate on their own schedules! Loeffler, meanwhile, turned ** much ** harder right in her jungle primary. So he left that race blank. On Nov. 3, Biden won 61 percent in Muscogee County and Ossoff won 60 percent -- that's Columbus, the third-largest city in the state. The smartest and dumbest thing said in politics is that it’s all about turnout. County officials can begin the pre-proccessing of mail ballots more than two weeks before the election, and can tabulate when polls close. Charlie, I think Cobb & Gwinett counties are a tale of demographics. Karen Handel beat Ossoff in that 2017 runoff (cc: Elena), lost a squeaker to now-Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath in 2018 and then this year ... not a particularly close rematch between still-Rep. McBath and Handel. Twenty years later, Biden carried Gwinnett 58-40. Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. 19,000 from DeKalb County, and about 7,000 from Coffee County. You thought the presidential race in Georgia was close? A liberal outfit from Colorado rented a house in town for door-knockers to live. Peach State voters will decide whether Republicans David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler return to Washington or if Democratic challengers Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock take their place. Take that, James! Steven Especially if Democrats manage to (somehow) retake the Senate. (Fun fact: My grandfather was MLK Jr.'s doctor back in the day.) With 73% reporting in Lowndes County, Perdue is up 51-49. Georgia election results: Democrats projected to gain control of Senate after Ossoff, Warnock win The focus now shifts to the second race between the GOP's David Perdue and Democrat Jon Ossoff. Gov. Also, congrats to the teeny tiny Webster County. A Republican from the state who’s working for the Senate candidates told me he expects that by 2:30 am, we’ll be sure of a winner. President Trump, who lost Georgia, had a 10-point lead at midnight on election night. But Metro Atlanta, as we've said a few times now, looms quite large. Warnock is about to give the speech of his life. Looks like everyone is expecting a tight one tonight. We really don’t know. Andrew Young, former mayor/Congress member/Ambassador, was a pastor. It’s been fascinating to see how Atlanta, and the rest of the state, has been transformed by massive demographic shifts. David Perdue "beat" Jon Ossoff in November, 49.7-47.9%. But on this Election Day, it really does matter. James & Andrew Atlanta these days reminds me of LA in that you have to plan your life around the traffic. With 76% of the expected vote in, Republican David Perdue leads Democrat Jon Ossoff, 50.7% to 49.3%. Georgia Senate runoff election results 2021 The dual runoff elections will decide which party controls the Senate. I'm still fascinated that Georgia has a county named Jeff Davis, in honor of the only president of the Confederacy. Charlie Looks like Gwinnett is only reporting mail votes right now, which we'd expect to be the most Democratic-leaning segment of the total vote. And the order, early in-person or mail first, varies county to county, which in-person Election Day comes in as they have it. I am very excited for the next NASS conference, Charlie. "It could be a see-saw for the rest of the evening" as more votes come in, Sterling said. While his party is engaged in nail-biting over the fate of its Senate majority, President Trump just released the following statement. Charlie Not just tough, maybe painful. POLITICO's coverage of the Senate race between David Perdue and Jon Ossoff. But of course, this is all dependent on how tight it is. Instead, it’s a confederation of counties. (And James Arkin memorably wrote about Ossoff's evolution as a candidate, if you're interested!)Â. Georgia election results are provided by the Associated Press. I'm still waiting on 5,000 words on Gabriel Sterling, Charlie. Already, one member of the family (by marriage) is considering running for Senate in your home state! Thank you for spending your evening with us. If it flips, it could be an indicator of how Trump was a drag on Perdue. His winning margin there was roughly 250,000 votes. Trump had a similar impact on GOP turnout in previous special elections - think NC-09 or even that Pennsylvania race that Dem Rep. Conor Lamb pulled off. Several outlets have already called the second runoff for Jon Ossoff. Republicans, who have made Election Day voting a political issue in and of itself, are hoping for 900,000 people to show total, which would probably mean lots of GOP voters. It was one of his loudest applause lines.Â. Teresa Smart point. We are looking at a lot of early-counted mail right now, which is partially why the Democratic leads are large at the moment -- or at least large compared to the close to 50-50 baseline from November. “People will remember,” Trump declared at his Dalton rally last night. I would be the person on that show who only guesses $1, hoping everyone else screwed up. ), if anyone wants to take a crack at it: And also, are we going to watch the urban-rural divide widen in real time? U.S. Senate seat in Georgia, the Associated Press reported early Wednesday, leaving control of the chamber in question until the result of the state’s other runoff election is decided. The list goes on.... Another very early observation: With 28% reporting, Ossoff is running well ahead of his Nov. 3 pace in Gwinnett County, a populous Atlanta suburb. So we're at 2.8m votes in and Perdue just cleared 50% and took a marginal lead over Ossoff but Loeffler still trails Warnock, who's just over 50% as well. For the record, DeKalb delivered big for Dems in November -- Biden won by a landslide, 83-16. Like in November, I think it is entirely possible we don't know the winner of either runoff tonight -- and that's okay! But it's the big one, We have the Atlanta metro area with ballots out yet, couple small counties, and the aforementioned Chatham, home of Savannah, Also according to data on the secretary of state's website: 147 of 159 counties are fully reported, If it comes down to Savannah, we ain't getting calls tonight:Â. The Democratic Senate candidates are running margins about 2 points better than Biden's over Trump two months ago, when he narrowly won the state. There's 159 counties in Georgia, each of which will be reporting three buckets of votes: In-person on Election Day, early in-person and mail ballots. As late as 5:30pm, I saw a prop plane flying above Atlanta with a Warnock banner that read: “VOTE TODAY.”. Now Republicans felt good about turnout in Cherokee County, which is in the Atlanta media market and is a big one that Trump won with nearly 70% of the vote in November. It's hard to draw any conclusions without that information — folks I talked to before today said they were watching that region above all others tonight. I meant in the respect of being a razor-thin-margins state. GA Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger on CNN predicts that we'll have a "better idea" of where things stand by noon tomorrow. Ok. If it is really close, it might not be 'till Friday at the earliest! There are still a lot of metro Atlanta area votes to be counted. Teresa It took me 5.5 hours to get from Atlanta to Savannah over the weekend. There have been 1,991 senators in history according to congressional historians. oh god, me writing "young internet creators" makes me seem old, I read a really interesting story in a competing outlet about how young internet creators were headed to Atlanta too, Teresa. How's everyone doing? Live 2021 Georgia election results and maps by county. They've only reported a few hundred "advanced voting" votes ... that is, people who voted early in-person. Hey everyone! Jon Ossoff (D) 49.98%, Raphael Warnock (D) 50.40% Sen. Tim Scott, a Republican, was elected after his appointmentÂ. Ah, yes, THAT is happening tomorrow. Warnock's opponent, Kelly Loeffler, is trying to preempt his speech by making some brief remarks right now. They've got more Blacks and Latinos moving there. He just played it out. Additional data from U.S. Census Bureau, MIT Election Lab and POLITICO reporting. With Ossoff and Raphael Warnock's wins over Georgia… It looks like a healthy number (more than this time in November) are counted. I'm not sure about Raffensperger, but Gabe Sterling (who is one of the top officials in the secretary of state's office, who has just ripped the president and the two Republicans for the election conspiracies) pulled the lever for both Loeffler and PerdueÂ. If you've just tuned in to our live chat, it's looking like we've got two barnburner Senate races tonight. Live Georgia Senate runoff election results 2021, including votes, live maps and poll results for Senator David Perdue and Jon Ossoff by county and district. I basically moved to Atlanta for a few weeks in May and June 2017 to cover the Georgia 6th congressional special election -- the first (major) election during the Trump era. What does it all mean? He also said that the likely biggest pot of vote still out is the DeKalb County in-person early vote. The polls have only been closed for 30 minutes and Marc is already unspooling his election administration grievances. See how the 2020 Senate races played out, leaving the majority up to Georgia. He can also decertify the illegal and corrupt results and send them to the House of Representatives for the one vote for one state tabulation.“, And the turnout in Dem-heavy DeKalb exceeded Election Day totals. That means we should expect the Republican candidates to lead in the vote count for much of the evening. Marc All in all, Republicans would take that. Just kidding. I'll bet he's treated like a rock star at the next election administrators convention. Marc Perdue also didn't have to run in a vicious primary. They did both those things, which is why we're looking at such close races, I'll bite on that one, Charlie -- just purely numerically, it was A LOT of people. And since many of the tranches still to come are from Democratic-oriented counties, they will likely narrow the race or the lead will change hands. Also, Loeffler isn't a native Southerner, and for some folks, that makes a difference. Strategists are already telling me about how problematic this will be if the race is close, which we all expect it to be. So they're placing a big bet on turnout today, and hoping that their ground game ensures limited drop off, Democrats needed that high early turnout and the stronger percentage of Black voters in early voting to stand a chance tonight. Yeah. Again, DeKalb isn't the only county. Senators. My guess is we'll see incredibly few ticket splitters and that the only discrepancies between votes for candidates on both sides will be the result of undervoting. Just ask Jon Ossoff's first opponent, Charlie! Georgia has an middling number of people with four-year college degrees. But both left the fold in 2016 to give Hillary Clinton narrow victories and haven't looked back. Republicans are at roughly 700 votes there, to about 550 for each Democrat. He skipped a debate. January 5, 2021, 10:09 AM • 4 min read. If Perdue hangs on (he's ahead by fewer than 1,900 votes), it's a testament to his refusal to campaign. Zach I'm afraid I'm not familiar with those rules. “It really depends on how many absentee ballots.". This is your fault, One of the interesting aspects of the Columbus market was just how much both sides invested in ground game there. Here are a few key Democratic counties outside the Atlanta area to keep an eye on as the night goes on: Track results from the Georgia Senate runoff election. I am really looking forward to some Election Day votes from metro Atlanta to get a full picture. Teresa I think there's also something to be said about the Loeffler vs. Perdue dynamic, should Warnock outrun Ossoff. So everyone's gotta report up, which takes some time. So far, that see-sawing is mostly in Republicans' direction — Perdue and Loeffler currently lead in the vote count now. I went to high school in Atlanta and I have deep roots there. That was a revealing story -- if these Columbus numbers hold, it suggests all those Dem efforts were successful. If you're watching CNN, for example, it says "96% estimated vote" on the screen. For starters, he's the pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church, Martin Luther King Jr.'s church. You edited the story, Charlie. And as Maya reported in her excellent story about Georgia and the New South, the immigrant population jumped 84 percent between 2010 and 2018>. I think for a lot of voters, particularly Black voters, Warnock feels like a known/familiar entity. I believe the biggest bucket that's still out there is the in-person early vote from DeKalb county, which is the burbs of Atlanta. 12:36 PM / January 6, 2021 Georgia's top election official: Ossoff will likely have a victory over 0.5% needed to avoid recount This means that it was illegal. I don't think anyone will be surprised by this tweet from the president. We might have about half the expected vote in Columbus (the city and county are co-terminus, I believe), but we have zero Election Day precincts. Ossoff's near-miss 2017 House run became a national cause. A 1 million turnout would be what it was in November, I haven't seen a good comprehensive statewide estimate, Marc, but I'd probably ballpark it around a million or so folks voting in person on election day. Social media pressure building to issue a call in the Loeffler-Warnock race. I'm looking at how he performs with Black voters in places like Savannah, Columbus, even Valdosta to prove whether it's really an issue. Excited to be here. Some light reading for anyone who has time to kill waiting for more returns. (Har har.) Georgia voters have spoken, and their voices resonate loudly in Kentucky: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell won't keep his job as the most powerful senator in … This could be a really big deal, and I'm keeping a close eye on it. Expect these numbers to seesaw. Because I am very militant about my Price is Right strategy, You got those jeopardy test-taking skills, Charlie My guess: Gore lost Gwinnett by 18 points, Zach Interesting point, and something we saw play out in 2018 at the House level. Thanks for reading! I miss hearing you hectoring people on the phone, Zach. Clayton County, once represented by the late Rep. John Lewis, really delivered for Warnock and Ossoff tonight. Instead of running ye 'ole generic John Edwards-esque white dude in Southern states, So if he wins tonight, Raphael Warnock will be the first Black Democrat elected from the South (Republican Sen. 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Recognition there thanks to the House race in Georgia at the moment % there -- outperforming --. Jumping off that Marc steven -- I was looking up the dreaded R word recount... Around the traffic hard-working and talented colleague Matthew https: // that read: “VOTE TODAY.” back..., thanks to generous Georgia tax credits figment of his life, they’ll probably lose at some of those,.